IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Big Sky
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.0	#192
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.9	#119
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.7	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.3	#178

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.3%	16.7%	8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.8	14.5

.500 or above	65.6%	83.3%	57.8%
.500 or above in Conference	68.4%	79.9%	63.4%
Conference Champion	12.4%	18.4%	9.8%
Last Place in Conference	3.2%	1.4%	4.0%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
First Round	11.2%	16.7%	8.7%
Second Round	1.1%	2.1%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 5	3 - 6
Quad 4	10 - 4	13 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	154	@ Loyola Marymount	L	64-70	30%
Dec 03, 2020	140	Montana	L	71-72	49%
Dec 05, 2020	140	Montana	L	71-72	48%
Dec 09, 2020	291	@ Utah Valley	W	74-72	58%
Dec 17, 2020	337	Dixie St.	W	71-55	92%
Dec 31, 2020	209	@ Montana St.	L	70-72	44%
Jan 02, 2021	209	@ Montana St.	L	70-72	44%
Jan 07, 2021	322	Idaho	W	78-66	85%
Jan 09, 2021	322	Idaho	W	78-66	85%
Jan 14, 2021	132	@ Eastern Washington	L	75-82	27%
Jan 16, 2021	132	@ Eastern Washington	L	75-82	28%
Jan 21, 2021	256	@ Weber St.	W	72-71	52%
Jan 23, 2021	256	Weber St.	W	75-68	72%
Jan 28, 2021	299	@ Idaho St.	W	75-72	60%
Jan 30, 2021	299	@ Idaho St.	W	75-72	59%
Feb 04, 2021	166	Northern Colorado	W	69-68	55%
Feb 06, 2021	166	Northern Colorado	W	69-68	55%
Feb 18, 2021	230	Sacramento St.	W	68-63	67%
Feb 20, 2021	230	Sacramento St.	W	68-63	67%
Feb 25, 2021	266	Northern Arizona	W	75-68	72%
Feb 27, 2021	266	@ Northern Arizona	W	72-71	53%
Mar 04, 2021	252	@ Portland St.	W	79-78	52%
Mar 06, 2021	252	@ Portland St.	W	79-78	51%
Projected Record						13 - 10	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	2.2	3.2	2.9	2.0	0.8	0.2		12.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.5	2.0	3.7	3.8	2.0	0.6	0.1				12.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.6	3.0	4.8	3.5	1.1	0.1	0.0					13.2	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	3.5	5.0	2.8	0.5	0.0							12.8	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	3.4	4.6	2.0	0.3	0.0								11.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.0	3.6	3.8	1.6	0.2										10.3	6th
7th							0.1	1.0	3.0	3.4	1.1	0.1	0.0										8.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	0.9	2.7	2.6	0.8	0.0												7.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	0.9	2.1	1.7	0.6	0.0													5.6	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	0.7	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.0														3.6	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1																1.8	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.4	2.6	4.1	5.9	7.4	8.9	9.3	10.5	10.8	10.1	8.7	7.1	5.4	3.6	2.0	0.8	0.2			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
18-2	96.8%	2.0		1.8	0.2
17-3	82.3%	2.9		2.3	0.6	0.0
16-4	59.6%	3.2		2.0	1.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	31.2%	2.2		1.1	0.9	0.3	0.0
14-6	10.6%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0			0.0
11-9	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.4%	12.4		8.4	3.2	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		100.0%	100.0%		9.6					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
19-1	0.8%		100.0%	99.0%	1.0%	12.5						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0				100.0%
18-2	2.0%		94.2%	93.8%	0.4%	13.5												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.1		6.3%
17-3	3.6%		78.0%	78.0%		14.0													0.1	0.5	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.8
16-4	5.4%		54.0%	54.0%		14.6													0.0	0.2	1.0	1.4	0.3	2.5
15-5	7.1%		25.2%	25.2%		15.0														0.1	0.4	0.9	0.5	5.3
14-6	8.7%		8.4%	8.4%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	8.0
13-7	10.1%		1.1%	1.1%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.9
12-8	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.7
11-9	10.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
10-10	9.3%																							9.3
9-11	8.9%																							8.9
8-12	7.4%																							7.4
7-13	5.9%																							5.9
6-14	4.1%																							4.1
5-15	2.6%																							2.6
4-16	1.4%																							1.4
3-17	0.8%																							0.8
2-18	0.4%																							0.4
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.3%	11.3%	0.0%	14.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.8	3.7	3.6	1.4	88.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	8.2				1.0	16.2	17.1	10.5	8.6	17.1	8.6	9.5	3.8	7.6