Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#192
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#119
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 16.7% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 65.6% 83.3% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 79.9% 63.4%
Conference Champion 12.4% 18.4% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.4% 4.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round11.2% 16.7% 8.7%
Second Round1.1% 2.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 6
Quad 410 - 413 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 154   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 03, 2020 140   Montana L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 05, 2020 140   Montana L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 09, 2020 291   @ Utah Valley W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 17, 2020 337   Dixie St. W 71-55 92%    
  Dec 31, 2020 209   @ Montana St. L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 02, 2021 209   @ Montana St. L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 07, 2021 322   Idaho W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 09, 2021 322   Idaho W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 14, 2021 132   @ Eastern Washington L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 16, 2021 132   @ Eastern Washington L 75-82 28%    
  Jan 21, 2021 256   @ Weber St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 23, 2021 256   Weber St. W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 28, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 30, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 04, 2021 166   Northern Colorado W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 06, 2021 166   Northern Colorado W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 18, 2021 230   Sacramento St. W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 230   Sacramento St. W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 25, 2021 266   Northern Arizona W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 27, 2021 266   @ Northern Arizona W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 04, 2021 252   @ Portland St. W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 06, 2021 252   @ Portland St. W 79-78 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 10 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.2 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.8 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.4 8.9 9.3 10.5 10.8 10.1 8.7 7.1 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.8% 2.0    1.8 0.2
17-3 82.3% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
16-4 59.6% 3.2    2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.2% 2.2    1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 8.4 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 99.0% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 94.2% 93.8% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 6.3%
17-3 3.6% 78.0% 78.0% 14.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.8
16-4 5.4% 54.0% 54.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.3 2.5
15-5 7.1% 25.2% 25.2% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 5.3
14-6 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 8.0
13-7 10.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.9
12-8 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
11-9 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
10-10 9.3% 9.3
9-11 8.9% 8.9
8-12 7.4% 7.4
7-13 5.9% 5.9
6-14 4.1% 4.1
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 3.6 1.4 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.2 1.0 16.2 17.1 10.5 8.6 17.1 8.6 9.5 3.8 7.6